48 Real Estate Bubbles, Crashes and Lessons

September 27, 2007: The U.S. Housing Market Signals a Crisis That Would Reshape Global Real Estate

September 27, 2007, became another critical date in the unfolding U.S. housing crisis, as fresh housing data revealed the depth of a downturn that was rapidly spreading beyond the property market and threatening the wider financial system. The U.S. The Commerce Department reported that sales of new single family homes had fallen 8.3 percent in August 2007, reaching their lowest level in seven years. The median price of a new home also dropped 7.5 percent year-on-year to $225,000. The figures came at a time when the American housing market was already under severe pressure from falling demand, rising inventories and tightening mortgage credit. The deterioration was closely linked to the growing problems in the subprime mortgage market, where loans had been extended to borrowers with relatively high credit risk. As house prices stopped rising and began declining in many markets, borrowers with limited equity found it increasingly difficult to refinance their mortgages. Delinquencies and foreclosures began increasing, putting additional homes onto an already weakening property market. The consequences were not confined to individual homeowners or American cities. Mortgage loans had increasingly been packaged into securities and sold to investors, connecting residential property to banks, investment firms and financial markets around the world. When concerns about mortgage losses intensified, investors began pulling back from mortgage related securities, while lenders tightened credit. The Federal Reserve later noted that problems in subprime mortgages had exposed weaknesses across broader financial markets. The September 27 figures therefore represented more than a decline in American home sales. They were part of a chain of events that would contribute to the 2008 global financial crisis, producing widespread foreclosures, falling property values, tighter credit and major changes in mortgage regulation and financial risk management. From a real estate perspective, the episode demonstrated how housing markets are connected to banking, investment and the global economy. A downturn that began with mortgages and homes ultimately became one of the most consequential financial disruptions of the modern era.